(Image courtesy of Chris Riddell)
It seems appropriate that this month's COP26 came exactly two years after my Court appearance and conviction for peacefully protesting against our Government's criminal lack of action against climate breakdown. It feels like the right time to ask the questions: "What has changed in that two years?"; "What has the world learned?"; and "What has the world done to address it?"
It feels to me that everything has changed, and nothing has changed. Two years ago, few people accepted the reality and the imminence of climate breakdown, but now most do now accept it, even if they still desperately cling to the idea that we can all keep on living the comfortable and wasteful lives that we always have done. The idea that the action we have to take NOW is the problem, and that is the problem shared by our collective governments. I find it incomprehensible that our Governments could value short-term profits of the corporations that prop them up over the long-term survival of our very species, but that is apparently where we are. A few months ago, in August, the IPCC announced it's report warning of 'Code Red For Humanity', and the Secretary-General of the United Nations warned of the dire consequences of failing to take immediate drastic action.
He stated that "The alarm bells are deafening, and the evidence is irrefutable: greenhouse‑gas emissions from fossil-fuel burning and deforestation are choking our planet and putting billions of people at immediate risk. Global heating is affecting every region on Earth, with many of the changes becoming irreversible." He warned that the actions needed were immediate and drastic, stating: "We need immediate action on energy. Without deep carbon pollution cuts now, the 1.5°C goal will fall quickly out of reach. This report must sound a death knell for coal and fossil fuels, before they destroy our planet. There must be no new coal plants built after 2021. OECD [Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development] countries must phase out existing coal by 2030, with all others following suit by 2040. Countries should also end all new fossil fuel exploration and production, and shift fossil-fuel subsidies into renewable energy. By 2030, solar and wind capacity should quadruple and renewable energy investments should triple to maintain a net-zero trajectory by mid-century."
By the start of COP26, on 1st November, the warnings were getting more stark from the UN. António Guterres released this statement:
"We are digging our own graves."
"The six years since the Paris Agreement [on climate change] have been the six hottest years on record. Our addiction to fossil fuels is pushing humanity to the brink. We face a stark choice: either we stop it — or it stops us.
It’s time to say “enough”. Enough of brutalizing biodiversity. Enough of killing ourselves with carbon. Enough of treating nature like a toilet. Enough of burning and drilling and mining our way deeper. We are digging our own graves.
Our planet is changing before our eyes — from the ocean depths to mountain tops; from melting glaciers to relentless extreme weather events. Sea-level rise is double the rate it was 30 years ago. Oceans are hotter than ever — and getting warmer faster. Parts of the Amazon rainforest now emit more carbon than they absorb. Recent climate action announcements might give the impression that we are on track to turn things around.
This is an illusion. The last published report on nationally determined contributions showed that they would still condemn the world to a calamitous 2.7°C increase. And even if the recent pledges were clear and credible — and there are serious questions about some of them — we are still careening towards climate catastrophe.
Even in the best-case scenario, temperatures will rise well above 2°C. So, as we open this much anticipated climate conference, we are still heading for climate disaster. Young people know it. Every country sees it. Small island developing States — and other vulnerable ones — live it. For them, failure is not an option. Failure is a death sentence.
We face a moment of truth. We are fast approaching tipping points that will trigger escalating feedback loops of global heating. But, investing in the net‑zero, climate resilient economy will create feedback loops of its own — virtuous circles of sustainable growth, jobs and opportunity.
We have progress to build upon. A number of countries have made credible commitments to net-zero emissions by mid-century. Many have pulled the plug on international financing of coal. Over 700 cities are leading the way to carbon neutrality. The private sector is waking up. The Net-Zero Asset Owners Alliance — the gold standard for credible commitments and transparent targets — is managing $10 trillion in assets and catalysing change across industries. The climate action army — led by young people — is unstoppable. They are larger. They are louder. And I assure you, they are not going away. I stand with them.
The science is clear. We know what to do. First, we must keep the goal of 1.5°C alive. This requires greater ambition on mitigation and immediate concrete action to reduce global emissions by 45 per cent by 2030. G20 [Group of 20] countries have a particular responsibility as they represent around 80 per cent of emissions.
According to the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities in light of national circumstances, developed countries must lead the effort. But, emerging economies, too, must go the extra mile, as their contribution is essential for the effective reduction of emissions. We need maximum ambition — from all countries on all fronts — to make Glasgow a success.
I urge developed countries and emerging economies to build coalitions to create the financial and technological conditions to accelerate the decarbonization of the economy, as well as the phase‑out of coal. These coalitions are meant to support the large emitters that face more difficulties in the transition from grey to green for them to be able to do it.
Let’s have no illusions: if commitments fall short by the end of this COP, countries must revisit their national climate plans and policies. Not every five years. Every year. Every moment. Until keeping to 1.5°C is assured. Until subsidies to fossil fuels end. Until there is a price on carbon. Until coal is phased out. But, we also need greater clarity.
There is a deficit of credibility and a surplus of confusion over emissions reductions and net zero targets, with different meanings and different metrics. That is why — beyond the mechanisms already established in the Paris Agreement — I am announcing today that I will establish a Group of Experts to propose clear standards to measure and analyse net‑zero commitments from non-State actors.
Second, we must do more to protect vulnerable communities from the clear and present dangers of climate change. Over the last decade, nearly 4 billion people suffered climate-related disasters. That devastation will only grow. But, adaptation works. Early warning systems save lives. Climate-smart agriculture and infrastructure save jobs. All donors must allocate half their climate finance to adaptation. Public and multilateral development banks should start as soon as possible.
Third, this COP must be a moment of solidarity. The $100 billion a year climate finance commitment in support of developing countries must become a $100 billion climate finance reality. This is critical to restoring trust and credibility. I welcome the efforts led by Canada and Germany to help us get there. It is an important first step — but it delays the largest support for years, and it does not give clear guarantees.
But, beyond the $100 billion, developing countries need far greater resources to fight COVID-19, to build resilience and pursue sustainable development. Those suffering the most — namely, least developed countries and small island developing States — need urgent funding. More public climate finance. More overseas development aid. More grants. Easier access to funding. And multilateral development banks must work much more seriously at mobilizing greater investment through blended and private finance.
The sirens are sounding. Our planet is talking to us and telling us something. And so are people everywhere. Climate action tops the list of people’s concerns, across countries, age and gender. We must listen — and we must act — and we must choose wisely. On behalf of this and future generations, I urge you: choose ambition. Choose solidarity. Choose to safeguard our future and save humanity, and I thank you."
What are these dire consequences of failing to act? A rise of between 2 and 3 degrees (and what we are currently on track for is closer to 3 degrees) will mean that large swathes of the earth will no longer be suitable to sustain human life, with massive desertification, evaporation of fresh water, and no crops able to grow. The people unlucky enough to be born in these areas will have a choice of death by starvation and thirst or migration away from the equator to areas that will sustain life. If (as is happening at present) these 'safer' areas simply build barricades to prevent entry by climate refugees, then there will be conflict and war for diminishing resources, and human death in unimaginable numbers. Some scientists predict that the earth's capacity for sustaining human life could be reduced to around 1 billion. Given that the current population is around 7 billion, then this would mean the death of around 6 billion people. And yet, given the closing statement from COP26 yesterday, this appears to be an acceptable outcome for the richer nations.
Many low-lying islands, particularly in the Pacific Ocean will disappear completely, and many of the worlds largest Cities, including Shanghai, New Orleans, Florida, Mumbai, Kolkata, Ho Chi Min City, Bangkok, Amsterdam, Alexandria, Basra will be inundated. Huge areas of Bangladesh will be below sea level. And this isn't far in the future, it is by 2050.
And yet, what happened over the last two weeks at COP26, when the leaders of the world had a chance to take the drastic action required to avoid these dire consequences for humanity? They bottled it. Kicked the can down the road. Watered down proposals, and decided that short-term economic growth and profit was more important that human life and indeed all biological life. If anything illustrated that Capitalism is the problem and the obstacle facing humanity, then this was it.
Boris Johnson taking a nap next to Sir David Attenborough at COP26
So, the world has undoubtedly learned the truth of climate breakdown. The United Nations have been crystal clear on what is at stake and what the consequences of inaction are. It is just that our current leaders have utterly failed us. They are too wedded to massive Corporations and to the concept of Capitalism - ie that profit and unsustainable growth is the driving force of their policies. It is telling that the largest delegation at COP26 was the fossil fuel industry, and that they were successful in preventing the 'phasing out' of fossil fuels, replacing that phrase with the meaningless 'phasing down'. Our Governments continue to be in the pockets of the fossil fuel industry, and fossil fuel rich Governments such as Saudi Arabia, who can act with utter impunity on the world stage, even to the extent of murdering and dismembering people who dare to criticise them and avoiding all consequences. https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2021-03-02/jamal-khashoggi-mohammed-bin-salman-saudi-arabia-murder-intelligence-report
Even our own UK Government takes more heed of fossil fuel companies than the warnings of Scientists and the United Nations. Prior to COP26, Boris Johnson held a meeting with Britain's largest oil company, BP, but the details of that meeting will remain secret, despite attempts from the Good Law Project and Open Democracy to find out what was discussed. https://goodlawproject.org/news/boris-johnson-bp-public-interest/?utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=BPBlog141121&utm_medium=social%20media&fbclid=IwAR1waTX8e4lGMfWsSbSFEpFXE_wMufrVglbIR4mmxRp8mkNHdPo2xQ3NLFc Bearing in mind the fact the oil and gas firms have donated more than £1million to the Conservative Party since the last election, we can only speculate. https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/dark-money-investigations/oil-and-gas-firms-have-given-1m-to-boris-johnsons-conservatives/
So what can we do? My only hope is that the younger generation are much more aware of the situation. After all, it is they that will suffer the consequences of my generations profligacy. My own generation couldn't give a damn. We will all be dead before the tidal wave hits, and stuff our grandchildren. It is our children and Grandchildren that will bear the burden, and I can only hope that they will step up to the plate and demand the action that is required. However, time is short - we have less than a decade before the results of the last two centuries' disastrous actions are locked in and irreversible. If our Government's refuse to act (and they have refused!) then we have only one choice - to rise up and demand that they change course. Only mass civil disobedience will force them to act.
Peaceful demonstrators in Glasgow during COP26
Apathy is the enemy of our future generations. I have a new Granddaughter, who I love dearly, and my greatest fear is the state of the world that we are bequeathing her. And she is one of the luckiest humans - born in the privileged northern hemisphere that will be spared the worst of the immediate effects of climate breakdown. I cannot begin to imagine the fate of a baby born in Kenya or Bangladesh over the next 70 years. For the sake of all humans we need to demand better from our politicians, and we need to demand urgent action.
Extinction Rebellion made three demands, all of which are still valid and necessary:
Tell the truth Government must tell the truth by declaring a climate and ecological emergency, working with other institutions to communicate the urgency for change.
Act Now Government must act now to halt biodiversity loss and reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2025.
Go Beyond Politics Government must create and be led by the decisions of a Citizens’ Assembly on climate and ecological justice.
